Untimely rain and hailstorms across northern Indian states have ravaged several winter-sown crops, including wheat, mustard and chickpeas, delaying harvesting and possibly impact yield, officials and farmers said — a scenario that could dampen hopes of putting a lid on elevated food prices.

Wheat, the main winter staple, has been battered in parts of Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, and state revenue departments are currently assessing the extent of losses, officials said.

On March 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast intense rainfall and snow over the western Himalayan region and hailstorms in the plains of northwest India till March 3-4 due to a western disturbance, a rain-bearing system.

Last week, the agriculture ministry said in its second advance estimates that it expected wheat production to rise 1.3% to a record 112 million tonne, which experts felt could now be lower if crop damage is found to be extensive.

A top wheat scientist said there were reports of crops being flattened due to hailstorms in some regions but the impact on total output should be negligible. “Lodging of wheat has taken place in isolated areas. However, there is nothing to worry about in terms of overall production,” said Gyanendra Singh, the director of Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research.

Reports from states, however, pointed to crop losses in many districts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, causing losses to farmers.

Amid hopes of a record output, the Union government, on February 29, fixed a wheat procurement target of 30-32 million tonne for 2024-25. Wheat is sown in November and harvested during March-April.

Stocks and compensationRobust harvests are critical this year as extreme weather and heatwaves trimmed wheat output in 2022 and 2023, plunging state-held stocks to a seven-year low. The government is depending on rabi or winter-sown harvests to fill its reserves. Grains procured by the government from farmers are distributed to nearly 800 million beneficiaries of the National Food Security Act 2013 free of cost.

The Union agriculture ministry has also fixed a procurement target for winter-sown rice in the range of 9-10 million tonne. In the 2023-24 season, the government procured about 26.2 million tonne of wheat against a target of 34.15 million tonne. In 2022-23, wheat procurement was only 18.8 million tonne, against the target of 44.4 million tonne, due to lower production.

In Uttar Pradesh, a major producer of wheat, damage to the staple, mustard and gram were reported in 40 of the 75 districts in varying degrees.

Official surveys found crop loss of above 33% in nine districts, of which five are in Bundelkhand, two in western Uttar Pradesh, and another two districts in the eastern region, an official said.

According to federal norms, only farmers who suffer crop loss above 33% due to a natural calamity are eligible for government compensation. Farmers who suffer losses below this limit are compensated only if they are covered under a crop insurance scheme.

UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath on Tuesday released ₹23 crore as compensation to farmers in nine districts where crop damage was severe.

India is eyeing robust mustard harvests this year. According to the government’s second advance estimates released last week, output of mustard, a key cooking oil, is estimated to be 12.6 million tonne.

“More than wheat, the worry is that damage to oilseeds and seasonal horticulture produce can knock up food prices,” said Abhishek Agrawal, an analyst with Comtrade.

Higher food production is critical to help put a lid on food prices, which have remained elevated this year partly due to the impact of extreme weather during 2022-2023. Food inflation rose 8.30% in January, compared to an increase of 9.53% in December, while rice inflation has risen to a record 15% year-on-year, according to latest available data.

To cool prices, India has turned protectionist, banning the export of wheat, rice and onion. If harvests are plentiful, the country may reverse some of these restrictions. However, the government is in no hurry to lift prohibitions on overseas shipments, one official said.

Ground situationIn Punjab, more mustard than wheat had been damaged, the state’s agriculture director Jaswant Singh said. “A sizeable area under wheat would revive but the inclement weather is likely to have a more serious impact on mustard,” he said.

A total of 15,000 hectares of crops have been impacted in the state by hailstorm, the official said, adding crop-loss assessment was still under way. Initial surveys pegged crop losses of between 3-10% in different districts, including Bathinda, Ferozepur and Amritsar.

District officials said seasonal vegetables like carrot, green peas and tomatoes had also been impacted. Unseasonal rains often push up prices of perishables, making horticulture produce highly volatile.

An intense spell of golf-ball sized hail hammered pockets of Haryana on March 2, causing widespread damage in Rohtak, Sonepat, Jhajjar, Hisar, Charkhi Dadri and Bhiwani. On March 4, the state government opened the “Kshatipurti” web portal where farmers can submit reports and register claims by March 15, an official said.

A total of 5,143 farmers, whose insured crops suffered damage, have applied for compensation under the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana, the flagship federally subsidized crop insurance scheme.

“Surveys to know the extent of damage to crops are still under way. We have sought reports from district administrations also,” Haryana farm minister JP Dalal said.

In Karnal district, initial reports suggest wheat, oilseeds and vegetables suffered 26-50% losses in nearly 12000 acres, while another 15000 acres witnessed crop losses up of to 25%. In Kaithal, crops in nearly 80,800 acres were reported damaged, with losses ranging from 51-75% while in 750 acres, surveyors noted up to 100% crop loss.

In Uttar Pradesh, districts where crop loss has been pegged at above 33% are Basti (35 villages), Chitrakoot (10 villages), Jalaun (33 villages), Jhansi (32 villages) and Saharanpur (62 villages).

CM Adityanath has approved the fund after reviewing the survey report of crop losses, the state’s principal secretary, revenue, P Guruprasad said, adding all district officials were instructed to conduct on-site assessments of fields.

(With inputs from Lucknow, Chandigarh and Bathinda)