The speculation about the return of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) continued on Friday. The JD(U) is believed to have called its lawmakers to Patna even as Ram Manjhi, whose Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) is an NDA constituent, reiterated a “big political game” was in the offing.

Kumar and his deputy, Tejashwi Yadav, of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) sat together at the Republic Day function in Patna but did not appear to have spoken much. A meeting of JD(U) leaders was expected in the evening while Kumar was also scheduled to attend a high tea at governor Rajendra Arlekar’s residence.

The speculation about the possible split in the state’s ruling alliance was fuelled after Union home minister Amit Shah met state BJP leaders on Thursday evening. Former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi, who is believed to have been among those who attended the meeting, on Friday said politics is about probabilities. “In politics, doors can never be closed,” he said in response to a query about JD(U)’s return to the NDA. “Whatever the central leadership decides, we will abide by it.” He maintained the BJP meeting on Thursday was related to Lok Sabha poll preparations.

People aware of the matter said the BJP is likely to take a call on JD(U)’s return after consultations with other allies including two factions of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).

LJP (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan, who left for Delhi on Friday, said he would talk with the BJP leadership while refusing to comment on JD(U)’s return. Manjhi said his party would welcome Kumar’s return to the NDA.

JD(U) functionaries said Kumar has expressed his inability to attend a programme on Sunday. The party was expected to hold a meeting of its legislators on Saturday.

RJD leader Manoj Jha downplayed the uncertainty saying the media were making a mountain out of a mole. “Everything is fine…,” he said.

Congress leader Prem Chand Mishra refused to comment.

JD(U) state chief Umesh Kushwam said the party continued to be a part of the Opposition Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) while asking the Congress to fast-track the seat-sharing arrangement. “There is no threat,” he said.

The uncertainty comes against the backdrop of Kumar’s unhappiness over the delay in the seat-sharing arrangement and the bloc’s reluctance to give a prime post to him.

JD(U) leader K C Tyagi this week said Kumar flagged the issue of delay at INDIA bloc meetings and expressed his displeasure over West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s push for making Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge as INDIA bloc’s prime ministerial candidate.

“There was no need for Mamata Banerjee to put forth Kharge’s name. It was decided by all allies that the INDIA bloc would contest the polls without any face,” Tyagi said.

The speculation about the friction within the ruling coalition of the RJD, JD(U), Congress, and the Left parties was also strengthened when Kumar thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi for conferring India’s highest civilian award Bharat Ratna posthumously on former chief minister Karpoor Thakur.

Kumar also said he never pursued dynastic politics and followed Thakur’s principles. The statement was seen as an attack on the RJD and Congress.

On Thursday, RJD chief Lalu Yadav’s daughter Rohini Archarya wrote a series of cryptic posts on X, taking potshots over the statement on dynastic politics. Acharya later deleted the posts with Tyagi calling them unwarranted even as he stressed that JD(U) was part of the INDIA bloc.

JD(U) has 45 members in the 243-member Bihar assembly while BJP and other NDA allies have 82. A party or a grouping needs 122 lawmakers to form the government. The RJD, Congress, and Left parties have 114 lawmakers. The RJD is the single largest party in the House with 79 lawmakers.

In 2005, Kumar formed his first government in alliance with the BJP. He snapped the ties in 2013 before returning to the NDA in 2017. JD(U) contested the 2019 national polls and 2020 Bihar elections as part of the BJP-led grouping. In 2022, Kumar quit the NDA to form the government again with the RJD, Congress, and Left parties.