The withdrawal, which takes up to a month, had started with a seven-day delay on 25 September. Typically, the southwest monsoon makes its onset over Kerala by 1 June and covers the entire country by 8 July. It starts its retreat from northwest India around 17 September.

The 2023 southwest monsoon season was not only the weakest in five years but was also marked by erratic distribution of rains. June received 9% below normal rainfall, while July brought torrential downpour and floods across man regions in northern India. August was the driest month on record in 100 years, with 36% below normal rainfall. September saw some recovery with showers 13% above normal, but the four-month monsoon season ended with 6% below normal rainfall.

Rains in the June-September season drives the bulk of India’s $3 trillion economy. It accounts for nearly 75% of the country’s annual rainfall, which plays a crucial role the agriculture, replenishes reservoirs and aquifers, and helps meet power demand.

Over half of India’s arable land is rain-fed and agriculture remains among the biggest employment generators.

“With the setting in of Easterlies or Northeasterlies over southern peninsular India, northeast monsoon rainfall activity is likely to commence over the southern peninsular in the next 72 hours. However, the initial phase of the northeast monsoon in general is likely to be weak,” the IMD said.

The southwest monsoon is also crucial as ensures soil moisture when farmers begin planting rabi, or winter, crops such as wheat, the main crop of the season, chana (gram), mustard, among others.

Meanwhile, Wednesday’s cyclonic circulation over the southeast Bay of Bengal in lower tropospheric levels persists. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over central parts of the Bay of Bengal by the morning of 21 October, and intensify into a depression over west-central Bay of Bengal around 23 October. This may cause squally weather with wind speed reaching 35-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph in east-central Arabian Sea & Lakshadweep today and decrease gradually thereafter.

IMD has advised fishermen to not venture into the seas between Thursday and Monday.

“Exciting news! Mint is now on WhatsApp Channels 🚀 Subscribe today by clicking the link and stay updated with the latest financial insights!” Click here!

Updated: 19 Oct 2023, 02:54 PM IST