Indications and opinions of voters and experts suggest that this time there’s a tight race between the two regional outfits — the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) and opposition Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) — which could lead to a fractured verdict with no party getting the 21 seats needed for a majority in the 40-seat assembly.

Former heavyweight Congress which got ousted from power in 2018 and was relegated to third spot behind MNF and ZPM is also looking at a comeback with a new face while the Bharatiya Janata Party, which bagged one seat five years ago, is eyeing to be part of the next coalition.

While MNF, ZPM and Congress contested from all 40 seats, BJP put up candidates in 23. The decision of the state’s 857,000 voters remains sealed for the next four weeks in strong rooms. Meanwhile, here’s a look at the candidates who could fill the CM’s chair next month.

If MNF manages to buck anti-incumbency and retain power, the most obvious and undisputed choice to head the next government would be the incumbent Zoramthanga who is also the party’s president. The 79-year-old former rebel leader-turned-politician has been a key figure in Mizoram’s politics for close to four decades now. Zoramthanga has held the top post thrice already. He first became chief minister in 1998 and retained power again in 2003. After a 10-year Congress rule, MNF returned to power in 2018 and Zoramthanga was sworn in as the chief minister.

Despite allegations of corruption levelled by the opposition, he is the tallest leader in the state’s politics and is praised for refusing Centre’s diktats on not providing shelter to Chin refugees from Myanmar (whom the Mizos consider their brethren due to ethnic and social ties) or take their biometrics. Zoramthanga and MNF are banking on his image as a defender of Mizo nationalism to remain in power for another five years.

Since 1987 when the state was formed, the power has shifted between MNF and Congress. But in 2018, ZPM sprang a surprise by winning eight of the 40 seats and becoming the largest opposition party ahead of Congress. It was formed in 2017 when seven outfits came together and it was led by Lalduhoma, a former Indian Police Service (IPS) officer-turned-politician. In the past five years, ZPM has expanded its base and is now seen as the prime contender to give Mizoram an alternative beyond MNF and Congress.

If that happens, Lalduhoma is expected to reach the CM’s chair. Since his first stint as a Congress MP in 1984 after quitting service, the 74-year-old had briefly been part of MNF as well before forming the Zoram Nationalist Party, which merged with others to form ZPM in 2017. Like Zoramthanga, Lalduhoma has been a key player in Mizoram’s politics for close to four decades and his long and diverse career will come in handy if he becomes the next CM.

Mizoram was the last Congress bastion to fall in the Northeast when the party lost power to MNF in 2018. The highlight of that loss was the defeat faced by the party’s strongman and chief minister Lalthanhawla in not one but two seats. Three years after that loss, Lalthanhawla resigned as president of the Mizoram Congress and the post was given to Lalsawta, a Congress veteran. The 77-year-old has been a member of the state assembly twice in 2008 and 2013 but lost in 2018. The former finance minister in Lalthanhawla’s cabinet between 2013 and 2018 is an astute politician. But it remains to be seen if he will be able to revive Congress’s fortunes in Mizoram and reach the top post.

BJP: Likely deputy CMs

Unlike 2018, when it contested 39 of the 40 seats, this time the BJP decided to field candidates in 23 seats, indicating that the party doesn’t see itself as getting a majority on its own in the Christian-majority state. Five years ago, the BJP secured 8% of the total votes and won just one seat, its first one in Mizoram. Incidentally, Mizoram is the only state in the Northeast where the BJP is not heading the government nor is part of the ruling coalition. The party is looking to change this by joining hands with either the MNF or the ZPM to form the next government. The BJP is hoping for a hung verdict and is looking to win three to five seats to play the role of kingmakers.

To reach that figure, the party is banking on retaining its lone seat and two former MNF MLAs—K Beichhua, who was a minister in the present MNF government and Lalrinliana Sailo, who was Speaker of the present assembly. Both these leaders quit MNF and joined BJP ahead of polls. While Beichhua is contesting from Saiha, Sailo is the BJP candidate in Mamit. There’s speculation that if the BJP joins the next government, either of these two could become deputy chief minister. The post could also go to BJP state president Vanlalhmuaka if he is able to win from Dampa.