​Global temperatures set a new 12-month record, exceeding 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels from November 2022 to October this year, a new analysis of international climate data released by Climate Central said on Thursday.

This is the hottest year-long period in recorded history according to the analysis with 170 countries recording mean temperatures that exceeded 30-year normals.

Around 7.8 billion people or 99% of humanity was exposed to above-average temperatures except Iceland and Lesotho which recorded cooler-than-normal temperatures, Climate Central, a non-profit science and news organization said.

The analysis using the Climate Shift Index (CSI) — Climate Central’s daily local temperature attribution system — indicates that human-caused climate change significantly raised temperatures over the Past 12 months. CSI applies a peer reviewed methodology to attribute climate impacts. It is based on a study that was published in journal of Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography last year. For example, CSI level 3 indicates that human-caused climate change made those temperatures at least three times more likely.

The analysis looks at daily average temperatures and heat waves and included data for 175 countries, 154 states, and 920 major cities.

Least developed countries and small island nations had THE highest exposure to climate-driven heat, but climate change touched every country, and intense heat waves were recorded in the US, Europe, India, and China.

The highest average CSI was recorded for Jamaica, with an average CSI of 4.5 out of a maximum of 5 in the past 12 months. This means that climate change had an extraordinary impact on the average person in Jamaica who experienced temperatures made more than four times more likely by human-caused climate change. Guatemala (4.4) and Rwanda (4.1), also had 12-month average CSI values above 4.

India recorded average CSI of 1 but the CSI increased to 1.6 between May and October this year. The large area of many of the G20 countries tends to mask the climate signal when looking at country-wide averages as is the case for India, the analysis said. Several Indian states recorded high CSIs during this year since May including Kerala (3.6), Goa (3.4), Andaman and Nicobar (3.3), Puducherry (3.2), Mizoram (3.0), Karnataka (3.0), Meghalaya (2.9), Manipur (2.8) and Tripura (2.8) .

While the CSI averaged across the US population was relatively low, several US states also had high average CSI values including Hawaii (2.8), Louisiana (1.9), and Texas (1.9).

In India, 1.2 billion residents — 86% of the population — experienced CSI level 3 temperatures on 30 or more days. In China that figure was 513 million residents or 35% of the population; and in the United States, 88 million , 26% of the population.

“This 12-month record is exactly what we expect from a global climate fueled by carbon pollution,” said Andrew Pershing, vice president for science at Climate Central.

“Records will continue to fall next year, especially as the growing El Niño begins to take hold, exposing billions to unusual heat. While climate impacts are most acute in developing countries near the equator, seeing climate-fueled streaks of extreme heat in the US, India, Japan, and Europe underscores that no one is safe from climate change,” he added.

The analysis comes days ahead of the UN Climate Summit (COP28) to be held in Dubai. One of the main deliverables of COP28 is the global stocktake (GST). GST is a review of collective progress towards achieving the purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.

HT reported on September 9 that the synthesis report of the first Global Stocktake released by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change found that global efforts on climate crisis are falling short of meeting the Paris Agreement goals of keeping global warming under 2 degrees C (over pre-industrial levels) and pursuing efforts to keep it under 1.5 degrees C. HT had reported that this year the 1.5 degree C goal was breached temporarily on certain months.

“The GST is an opportunity for the world to reset the ambition and the cooperation agenda. I believe the GST should lay down a very ambitious pathway going forward but one that recognises a rule based international system and is based on common but differentiated responsibilities. GST is also an opportunity to correct the wrongs in terms of adaptation and loss and damage and to recognise the need for grant based concessional finance for the countries of the global South,” said Sunita Narain, director general of Centre for Science and Environment who is also on COP28’s advisory committee.