Mizoram has had a history of voting out the incumbent in every two elections after 1993. The state has also only been ruled by Mizo National Front (MNF) or Congress governments since 1984. Both these long-term trends have been broken in the 2023 election. The Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) – a new party whose candidates fought as independents in 2018 because it had been formed just one year before the election – has won the 2023 election in the state after just one term of a MNF government. While the MNF has still managed to finish second in the state, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has pushed the Congress to the fourth spot. This increases the string of losses the Congress has suffered in this round of elections to four.

How big is the ZPM’s win in Mizoram? In terms of seat share and vote share, it is in line with winners of previous elections. The party has won 27 of the 40 seats in the state with a 37.9% vote share. In comparison, the MNF had won 26 seats in the 2018 election and the Congress had won 32 and 34 seats in the 2008 and 2013 election respectively. Both the MNF and the Congress have previously won bigger vote shares than that won by the ZPM in this election.

See Chart 1

The MNF’s success, therefore, is not so much in terms of seat share and vote share as in breaking the state’s long-term tradition. The Congress and the MNF had previously won at least 27 of the state’s 40 seats in each election since 1989. In this election, the two parties have been reduced to just 11 seats.

However, individually, the Congress is the bigger loser . The MNF has won 10 seats with a 35% vote share. These are the third lowest and fifth lowest seat and vote share figures for the party in Mizoram. The Congress on the other hand has won one seat with a 20.8% vote share, both the lowest ever for the party in the state.

Also read- Mizoram’s new government will have zero tolerance for corruption: Lalduhoma

See Chart 2

To be sure, the Congress has slipped below the second position earlier, too, in Mizoram. It finished third in 2008 and 2018. However, it was the Mizoram People’s Conference (MZPC) and the ZPM (fighting as independents) who had pushed Congress to the third position in these two elections. In 2023, it has been further pushed further down to fourth position by the BJP, with which the Congress is in a contest in national elections too. The BJP has increased its seat tally from one in 2018 to two in 2023.

The BJP pushing the Congress to the fourth spot, however, does not mean that popular support for the party outmatches the Congress in Mizoram. The BJP fought just 23 of the 40 seats in the state. Even in these 23 seats, its vote share is only 8.8%. This suggests that it won votes largely in the two seats it has won. On the other hand, the Congress vote share (it contested all 40 seats) is 20.8%.