As anticipated, the electoral contest between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance and the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) won’t be a direct one but is likely to be a triangular contest with Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) fielding candidates across the state. Ambedkar, who is the grandson of Dr B R Ambedkar, filed his nomination from the Akola constituency on Thursday.

PREMIUM

The fallout of Ambedkar fielding candidates in all 48 LS seats in Maharashtra, is that votes against the ruling three-party alliance, Mahayuti, would get divided.

Ambedkar’s target is communities that fall within the Other Backward Class, Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe categories and religious minorities — these are also the traditional voter base of the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, VBA’s alliance with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) resulted in the opposition Congress-NCP losing nine seats. Those who lost elections due to this included former chief ministers Ashok Chavan and Sushilkumar Shinde.

Efforts are still being made by the MVA leaders to work out a deal with Ambedkar. NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar said he would speak with Congress to withdraw its candidate fielded in Akola which would significantly improve Ambedkar’s chances of winning the Akola Lok Sabha seat. State Congress chief Nana Patole felt that there was still time and appealed to Ambedkar to join the MVA coalition to keep the BJP out of power.

“There are indications that there will be a close contest between NDA and MVA in Maharashtra. As such, Ambedkar’s outfits taking even a small percentage of votes could damage MVA’s prospects. That is why the MVA leaders are still trying to take him on board, and at the same time are trying to discredit him,” said Mumbai-based journalist and political analyst Abhay Deshpande.

What happens will impact the outcome of the election for 48 seats in Maharashtra.

Here are three possible scenarios:

One, VBA splits opposition votes which works to the advantage of the ruling alliance.

This could be more or less a repeat of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the VBA-AIMIM combine split the opposition votes and led to the defeat of nine Congress-NCP candidates. The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won 41 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra. This time, however, the AIMIM is not with the VBA, but Ambedkar is trying to take along an OBC outfit led by Dhangar (shephard) community leader Prakash Shendge. Dhangar votes are in significant numbers in western Maharashtra and some other pockets in the state. MVA leaders think they can win 25 to 30 seats if things work out their way. However, if VBA eats into their votes, this number could go down.

Two, VBA contests separately, but fails to garner too many votes. According to some leaders of the MVA, AIMIM’s non-alliance with VBA will reduce the latter’s vote share significantly, as what happened in assembly elections held six months after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls (VBA’s vote share fell from 6.92% to 4.92% ). There is a strong undercurrent against the BJP in most of the socially backward communities. And the possibility that they may vote for the MVA certainly exists. Ambedkar’s experiment of bringing Marathas and OBCs together did not take off, as Maratha activist Manoj Jarange-Patil refused to join him or support his candidates, but VBA leaders say there are many communities in the SC, ST and OBC categories that neither coalition is paying much attention. According to Deshpande, Ambedkar’s vote share will be hit if there is highly polarised voting with sections of voters clearly deciding to vote for or against the government. “Ambedkar has created his own political space with his VBA experiment. He damaged the prospects of Congress-NCP in 2019 but then he was with AIMIM. Later they parted ways. Though his percentage declined and AIMIM is not with him, Ambedkar is holding on to a small percentage of votes in several constituencies,” Deshpande said.

Three, VBA joins MVA or works out seat adjustment with a common goal of defeating the BJP. The first phase of voting is barely a fortnight away, so this scenario (of a formal alliance) seems least likely. However, VBA and MVA may help each other in a few constituencies. Ambedkar has already announced that he won’t field candidates opposite the Congress candidate and descendant of Maratha King Shivaji Maharaj, Chhatrapati Shahu Maharaj in Kolhapur constituency, or opposite NCP (SP) Sharad Pawar’s daughter and party MP Supriya Sule in Baramati, or even in Nagpur where Congress’ Vikas Thakre is contesting opposite Union transport minister and senior BJP leader Nitin Gadkari. Similarly, the Congress may withdraw the candidate opposite Ambedkar. This selective seat adjustment could partially help the MVA though it would require some negotiation.

Shailesh Gaikwad, political editor of HT Mumbai, breaks down the most important political news in Maharashtra this week