Leaders and workers of the Janata Dal United (JD-U) want the party’s chief and Bihar chief minister, Nitish Kumar to announce his candidacy for the Lok Sabha polls from Uttar Pradesh (UP), eyeing an opportunity to expand the party’s footprint . According to people familiar with the demands within the party, there is a perception that the state government’s decision of releasing the findings of the caste-census can weaken the Bharatiya Janata Party’s hold over the OBCs, and that as the architect of the survey, Kumar, and by extension, the JD(U) could benefit.

A senior party functionary familiar with the thinking, said there is a clamour for Kumar to pick a seat in neighbouring UP, which has a large percentage of other backward classes, particularly Kurmis, the caste to which he belongs .

“The BJP has gained politically by getting the support of the OBCs in both the 2014 and 2019 general elections, but it was opposed to a caste census. There is an opportunity for the others, the JD(U), the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) to consolidate their position as representatives of the OBC classes, as it is these parties that are pitching for a higher share for them in the reservation pie,” added this person on condition of anonymity.

The Bihar government released the findings of the caste census this week, which shows OBCs and EBCs constitute 63% of the state’s population. The census is widely seen as a platform for the revival of Mandal politics in India .

Opposition parties believe they can strike a chord with voters by pushing for more reservation for underprivileged classes in government jobs and educational institutions and also corner the BJP which has raised questions about the survey.

Senior JD(U) leader and spokesperson KC Tyagi said no decision on picking a seat for Kumar has been arrived at yet. “There is a demand from the workers, but a decision on contesting from UP will be taken by the CM and Akhilesh Yadav (of the SP).”

Another party functionary said that the JD(U) also wants Kumar to emerge as the face of the opposition bloc, INDIA, and pointed out that it was the Bihar chief minister who pushed for the caste census.

“The CM raised the issue with the Prime Minister and mobilised other parties. In the Mumbai meeting (of INDIA parties in August) the issue of including caste census in the common agenda was not supported by the TMC. At the coordination committee meeting held at Sharad Pawar’s residence (in September) too, the TMC dithered while others were on board, but the JD(U) was insistent that caste census must be in the agenda, and it was…” this person added on condition of anonymity.

The JD(U) wants Kumar’s push for the census to be highlighted against PM Narendra Modi’s stance that the opposition is using the exercise to “divide people.” At a rally in Madhya Pradesh on Monday, Modi said the opposition was “playing with the feelings of the poor and dividing the country based on caste.”

The JDU wants Kumar to lead the opposition in throwing a challenge to the BJP in the Hindi heartland state that has emerged as the latter’s turf since 2014.

“There are a dozen odd seats where the Kurmi population can swing the election. The impact of a Kurmi leader leading the opposition will be felt among the Patidars in Madhya Pradesh; in Chhattisgarh; in Gujarat where Kurmis are known as Patels; and among the Kunbis of Maharashtra,” the second functionary said.

The impact will also be felt in constituencies where intermediary castes such as Gujjars will support the opposition based on “caste-affinity” he added.

“In Varanasi, the Prime Minister’s constituency alone there are 3.50 Lakh Kurmis; there are 2.5 Lakh in Rae Bareilly, about 3 Lakh in Pratapgarh… And the numbers are high in large parts of central and eastern UP.”

Responding to a query on the most suitable constituencies for Kumar to contest from, the leader said “there are at least 40-42 assembly seats in UP where the Kurmis are between 1 Lakh to 1.5 Lakh.

A BJP leader in Uttar Pradesh said too much is being made of the survey. “The BJP’s social welfare policies and political representation to OBCs has worked in its favour. Besides, people are not sure of how the survey will impact their immediate future.”

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he added that the party which has courted non-dominant OBC castes has given space to Apna Dal, a largely Kurmi entity, and is also focussing on nurturing Kumri leadership within the BJP. “There are leaders such as Swatantra Dev Singh who are the face of Kurmis in the BJP. In the last assembly election 41 legislators from the community won…it is slow, but the process of building our ties with the community is underway.”