“It’s scary. I have never felt so out of work,” says Reshi. “Tourists book skiing slots months in advance, going as far back as July and August. This year, I had 110 bookings but only five turned up. Cannot blame them….there is no snow this year. What can they do?”

Typically, Gulmarg receives around 100 centimetres of snow every year between December and February. It is the country’s most sought-after skiing destination and attracts foreign tourists as well. Since 2021-22, after the covid pandemic, Reshi had trained 350 skiers, including 10 foreign nationals.

“You would not get hotel accommodation if you had not booked in advance for January. This year, the occupancy is just 5%,” says the father of three, who relies majorly on the income from these three months and doubles up as a paragliding instructor in Bir Billing in Himachal Pradesh during the summer months. “We have heard from elders that in 1982 there was no snow till January 26. This year it looks like it will be even worse.”

At Auli, another ski destination over a thousand kilometres away in Uttarakhand, 45-year-old Sanjay Kunwar is also distressed. Auli has faced bad publicity because of its proximity to the Badrinath zone, which was in the news for land subsidence (sinking) a year ago. One of its main attractions, the 4.15km Kedarnath ropeway, has been stalled since the disaster. Now, a snowless year has made Auli’s worst nightmare come true.

“We have done less than 5% of the business that we had expected. Those who came had to go back disappointed and it’s not a good feeling,” he says. “Unlike Gulmarg in Kashmir or Kufri in Himachal Pradesh, Auli is not easy to reach, so without snow there is very little going for us.”

The freak weather has led to a dire situation in the hills, and while the tourist season is a washout, the impact will be felt in other industries as well, and stretch well beyond the winter, going so far as to affect the water table and power generation.

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Weak western disturbances

So, what’s behind this unusual weather? Every year, the two hill states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir receive a series of rain-bearing western disturbances between November and March that result in heavy snow in the upper reaches and rainfall in the lower regions. A western disturbance is an extratropical storm that originates from the Mediterranean region, gains moisture-laden warm air from the Arabian Sea and flows northward to mix with cold air coming down from the North pole to bring rain, hail and snow to the north-west Himalayan range.

This weather system is critical not only for tourism—a significant contributor to the economy of these states—but also for agriculture and to replenish the glaciers and lakes that provide water later in the summer months. This year, however, the western disturbances have been fewer and weaker, befuddling weather forecasters.

“This year the western disturbances have been very feeble. Typically, the circulation of wind collects moisture from the Arabian Sea and leads to rain and snow in the western Himalayas and adjoining areas. The wind circulation this year is more north-bound, so it’s not picking up enough moisture from the sea,” says Soma Sen Roy, a scientist with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).

How deficient has the rainfall been? In Jammu and Kashmir, there was a 79% deficit in December, as the state received just 12.6 mm of rain against the monthly average of 59.6 mm. This is a stunning reversal, considering October saw 141% excess rainfall and even November recorded 10% excess rainfall. In Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, the deficit was to the tune of 85% and 75%, respectively, in December.

This month has been worse. Until 24 January, Jammu and Kashmir has seen no rain whatsoever against the normal 67 mm average. In Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the deficit is over 99% with just 0.1 mm each of precipitation against the normal 59.9 mm and 31.7 mm average, respectively.

“Whatever moisture is in the atmosphere is leading to formation of low clouds and fog, so we have seen many cold days but not much in terms of cold-wave conditions this season, so far,” Roy adds. “Now, we are moving towards the summer, so the cold wave is no longer related to precipitation. Even if there is a fall in temperature, cold-wave conditions would not be equivalent to December or January. There will be rain and snow in the coming days as the dry spell cannot continue, but the cold wave will not persist.”

Impact on agriculture

Beyond tourism, the biggest impact of the lack of snow and rainfall this winter season will be felt in the agriculture sector of these states, particularly in the apple harvest. Apples account for 85% of the overall fruit production of Himachal Pradesh and are the base for a ₹6,000 crore industry but already face a declining trend. Production peaked at 51 million boxes (each box weighs approximately 20kg) in 2010-11 but plunged to 18.8 million boxes last year when the state was battered by torrential rains, after which warm weather played spoilsport. This year is likely to be much worse.

“The crop needs chilling of at least 1,200-1,600 hours, which is possible when the temperature drops below 4 degrees. Snow is the best chilling agent but this year it has all been dry,” says Sanjay Chauhan, co-convenor, Sanyukt Kisan Morcha. “Last year was very bad but this year will be worse. It is tough to speculate how much can be saved.”

“We are anticipating a 50% drop in productivity in traditional orchards in the state,” said Ashish Mehta, the owner of a 15-acre orchard near Rohru in Himachal Pradesh, which has an annual production of 20,000 kg of apples. “Not everything is lost. We are hopeful of some intense western disturbances by the end of this month and a few more next month.”

The generally warmer weather and lack of snow poses another problem in the proliferation of pests, which can hurt crops. In cooler weather, they remain dormant. “The warm weather will affect the quality of apples as well as hamper the productivity of the farms. It is the farmers who will suffer in the end, as even if the demand in the market is strong, it is the middlemen who will profit,” says Avik Saha, national convenor of Jai Kisan Andolan, which fights for the rights of the farmers.

Water crisis looms

It isn’t just tourism and apples—the North may also face a water crisis this year. The lack of snow and rainfall in the mountains has already begun to impact river water levels, which, in turn, has affected production in hydroelectricity plants. The water level in rivers typically drops during winter, but this time the fall has been greater, hitting power production. In Himachal Pradesh’s 1,500 megawatt Nathpa Jhakri hydel plant, the decline is to the tune of 90%, against the usual 40%.

Built on the Sutlej river, the plant needs 450 cusecs of water for all its six turbines to be operational. Instead, the flow of water is down to just 70 cusecs and currently only one turbine is operational. As a result, electricity generation has dropped from 2,500 lakh units per day to 450 lakh units per day.

“If the situation persists, the power deficit could have far-reaching consequences. There is a critical need for a weather turnaround,” says Suneel Grover, former managing director of the State Load Dispatch Centre.

This could be the start of a more intense and protracted water crisis as summer approaches. Glaciers, which are the source of most of the major rivers in north India, are melting faster than ever due to global warming. Winter snowfall replenishes them while rainfall fills reservoirs and recharges the water table but the dry spell has put paid to that. The impact of the drought will be felt beyond the mountains and down in the northern plains, which are fed by these rivers.

“It is a big worry as in some places drinking water availability is secured only through snowfall,” says Surender Paul, director, IMD Himachal Pradesh.

Wake-up call

Is the dreaded El-Nino—an unusual warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean’s surface, which causes drought conditions on land—behind the freak weather this winter? Scientists are divided and a conclusion can only be arrived at after in-depth study.

“El Nino may have a role to play but we should not jump to conclusions without proper research,” says Roy of IMD.

Those who are bearing the brunt say the ill effects of climate change cannot be denied. “We have to become more responsible as tourists and hoteliers,” says Mehmood Ahmad Lone, director, Gulmarg Adventure Academy. “We litter everywhere, and plastic pollution in the mountains is a big menace. We are also cutting down our forests indiscriminately. This year may have been an exception but if we don’t course correct, it will become the norm.”

Locals say the frequency of droughts has gone up and there has been a general decline in rain and snow even in normal years. So, does it necessitate a realignment in crop cycles? “There are changes happening all the time and it is accelerated by our actions, but nature always adapts automatically. What doesn’t adapt as quickly is our commercial interests, so that will be hit,” says Jai Kisan Andolan’s Saha. “We will try to use technology and cultivate apples that can grow without frost through gene tinkering (editing), but it will ultimately be disastrous. We need to adapt and nature will show us how.”

If there is a silver lining, it is in the growing realization within the local business community that too much development can be catastrophic. “There has to be a cap on the number of vehicles and tourists that come to the hills. The region is fragile and is not equipped to take everybody,” says Reshi in Gulmarg. “You need wider roads for more vehicles, which means more smoke. And then to accommodate the increasing number of tourists, you have to cut forests and build hotels. It destroys the ecosystem—the glaciers melt and snow disappears. What will you do with the hotels and roads then?”

More than 800kms away, Mehta echoes similar sentiments in Rohr. “We are not like Europe, where the population is less. The mountains are already supporting more people than they should,” he says. “It is not like we will run out of water entirely, but the table will fall and life will become tougher. It is a warning signal.”

Mehta checks the weather app on his smartphone, which indicates rain on 31 January and then again in the first week of February. He hopes it will be heavy. There is a lot riding on how things play out in February. And in a leap year, it helps to think there might be an extra day of snow.