In many ways, the G20 was the defining event of 2023 for India. At one level, India’s presidency of the organisation was a massive exercise in image building. A steady stream of foreign dignitaries visited the country over the course of the year, debating everything from the war in Ukraine to the climate crisis. India drove, and was seen to be driving, the conversation about some of the most pressing issues of the day. India’s moment has arrived, said many. This was also backed by substance as New Delhi succeeded in getting countries to accept a compromise joint declaration, which had evaded the body through the year. It also bolstered New Delhi’s effort to project itself as a bridging power, as it was able to balance the interests of Russia and China on the one hand and a collection of Western powers on the other. Notwithstanding some complaints from Europe on Ukraine, few could dispute that India got the result it wanted.

The Indian government’s approach to the G20 also pointed to two trends in Indian diplomacy. The first was the increasing effort to bring foreign policy to the average citizen. Denizens of South Block and the panoply of Delhi think tanks complain that few, if any, of their countrymen really care about India’s diplomatic footprint. G20 represented an effort to change that, as events and meetings were held across 60 cities. Busy crossings and side streets in all these centres inevitably featured large posters bearing India’s G20 logo and the words “India’s moment” emblazoned in imposing font.

A second trend was India’s bid to champion the interests of the Global South. The first major diplomatic event of 2023 was the Voice of the Global South Summit, which had 125 countries participating. New Delhi has spared little effort in cultivating this diverse and inchoate constituency of countries, which it recognises as a key bank of support for its ambitions of global leadership. It pushed for the African Union’s membership of the G20, set up the first foreign IIT campus in Tanzania and pitched its signature India Stack across the developing world.

Foreign Minister Jaishankar and his deputies crisscrossed Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia. Two visits to Africa and one each to the Pacific Islands and Southeast Asia by Prime Minister Modi drove home the point to any who may have missed it.

The year also saw some other wins. Modi’s June visit to the US saw breakthrough agreements on defence technology and investments in semiconductors. The reaction to the visit among the general public was also largely positive, a far cry from the American scepticism that had been in vogue for decades. “The biggest development in the year, from my perspective, was the PM’s visit to the US and before that the announcement of the ICET partnership in January. This just really consolidated the relationship and pushed it up to a level with a much bolder and more ambitious vision,” says C Rajamohan, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Delhi.

The PM’s visits to France as chief guest for Bastille Day and to Japan for the Quad summit deepened both partnerships.

But the year was not without upheavals for Indian diplomacy. Attacks on Indian diplomatic missions globally by pro-Khalistan groups caused flare-ups at home and difficulties in some of India’s most important diplomatic relationships. The warm afterglow of India’s G20 success in September was quickly dispersed after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of having a hand in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a pro-Khalistan extremist. India hotly denied the allegations as recriminations flew thick and fast. Matters became worse in November as the US made similar accusations against India. Unlike the fracas with Canada, which played out under the glare of public opinion, India and the US have tried to keep the matter behind closed doors.

Reports indicate that these scandals have hurt India’s intelligence gathering capabilities in Western countries while foreign diplomats voice concern at the allegations in hushed tones.

The neighbourhood, always the focus of India’s diplomacy, has been a mixed bag. New Delhi’s relationship with Bangladesh has been a standout success, with a slew of new connectivity deals signed. India’s signal role in bailing out Sri Lanka also brought dividends during President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s visit in July. The relationship with Nepal has also stabilised. But there have also been setbacks. India’s border dispute with China remains frozen. Bhutan, long New Delhi’s most steadfast ally, is likely to break with decades of established practice and open ties with Beijing.

Maldives has elected Mohamed Muizzu, who has voiced India-sceptic views, as president. India’s policy of engagement with Myanmar’s repressive military junta has come under increasing criticism from civil society and resistance groups. As the junta loses ground to resistance fighters, India’s policy risks reaping no rewards for the country.

The year 2024 will bring a fresh set of challenges. The US presidential election and Bangladesh’s polls will throw up uncertainty. As India picks its way through a tricky neighbourhood and a world riven by division, it will need to keep its wits about it.

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Published: 24 Dec 2023, 11:08 PM IST