Voting for the Madhya Pradesh assembly election took place on November 17 and all eyes are now on Thursday’s exit polls to give an indication of which way the election is headed.

Madhya Pradesh has total 230 assembly segments and recorded a voter turnout of 77.15%, with that for the previous 2018 polls being 75.63%. In 2018, the Congress won its first assembly election in the state since 2003; the BJP had been in power since then. In March 2020, however, Jyotiraditya Scindia left the Congress to join the BJP, bringing down the state’s Kamal Nath-led Congress government; the BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan became chief minister for the fourth time.

The results for the current election, meanwhile, will be declared on December 3.

When will news channels broadcast Madhya Pradesh exit polls?

Last month, the Election Commission of India (ECI), while announcing the poll schedule for five states (Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan, Telangana), banned exit polls between 7am on November 7 and 6:30pm on November 30.

Where to watch Madhya Pradesh exit polls?

News channels such as News18, India Today, Times Now, ABP News, and Republic TV will air the results provided by the survey agencies. Besides giving an estimate of the number of seats each party is likely to win, these will also give details such as the likely vote share, region-wise results, region-wise vote share, expected results for VIP seats, and more.

To keep readers updated, Hindustan Times too will publish the exit poll results of most of the major survey agencies, and a ‘poll of polls.’

What is an ‘exit poll’?

Through an exit poll, a survey agency tries to gauge the likely result of an election. Here, voters are asked, after they exit (hence ‘exit poll’) the polling station, who they voted for. A similar exercise is the opinion poll, which is conducted several months/days before the election, and in which people are asked who they will/are likely to vote for.

How accurate is an exit poll?

These must be taken with a pinch of salt. There have been several instances in the past of exit polls going wrong. This is because people could name a candidate other than the one they voted for; give different answers to different agencies, or mention a name despite not having voted at all.

Conversely, the exit polls could be accurate as well, both in terms of seat projection and the result. There is also a possibility that a party projected to win, comes out victorious, but with a seat tally higher/lower than the projected one.