Bengaluru:

As pressure builds on the Congress government in Karnataka to release a socio-economic survey report, commonly referred to as the ‘caste survey,’ party leaders and political observers are divided on the electoral implications of the findings of the report.

If the leaked details of the 2015 report are true, the dominant classes are expected to lose their numerical advantage. Whether this will result in a consolidation of the Vokkaliga and Lingayat voters in favour of the Janata Dal (Secular)-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance or if the report will act as a catalyst to unite the scattered Backward Classes communities in the state remains crucial ahead of the Lok Sabha election.

After several leaders within the Congress party raised a demand for the release of the report, following the footsteps of the Bihar government, Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah, on October 3, said his government will take a decision on the matter after the state backward classes commission submits the report on the caste and socio-economic survey. In response, the commission said the report will be ready by the end of November.

In 2018, certain findings were leaked, much to the displeasure of larger communities such as Lingayats and Vokkaligas, as the leaked figures pegged their population to be much lower than commonly believed.

According to the leak, Scheduled Castes (SCs) accounted for 19.5% of the state’s total population, making them the largest caste group.

Muslims followed closely, constituting 16% of the population. Lingayats and Vokkaligas represented 14% and 11% of the population, respectively.

Among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), the Kuruba community alone accounted for 7% of the state’s population. Overall, the OBCs constituted 20% of Karnataka’s population.

“The surface-level assumption will be that because of Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA (Kannada acronym Minorities, Backward Classes, and Dalits) vote bank, the increased OBC votes will help Karnataka, and it will be in Congress’ favor. But the ground reality is different. The OBC vote bank is not united, whereas the dominant classes are much more united than the vote bank,” said a Congress MLA and former Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee office-bearer, requesting anonymity.

A Narayana, a political observer and professor of public policy and governance at Azim Premji University, observed how the findings of the report will be used by both parties would decide the impact of the survey.

“Mere figures of a survey are not an emotional issue to unite either the OBCs or the dominant castes. What narratives are created using these figures by the political parties will make the difference. The OBCs in Karnataka don’t have a shared political commitment or even a sense of shared agony. The various OBC communities have voted for both Congress and BJP,” he said.

He, however, added the release of the report could act as a ‘hook’ for parties to attempt this consolidation.

“Any consolidation based on the report’s findings could have a ripple effect. If the dominant castes fear OBCs are consolidating, they would start to consolidate behind one party or alliance. Similarly, if the OBCs see any sort of mobilisation of the dominant castes, it would mean they could rally behind the Congress,” said Narayana.

He said that the JD(S) and BJP would utilise the census report to unite their vote banks.

“In the previous election, a section of Vokkaligas had voted for the Congress. However, if the report is published and steps are taken to implement it, the community which earlier had given up on the JD(S), might consider it as an option for their benefit, on the assumption that Congress will support its core vote bank,” he said.

Dr. Sandeep Shastri, a political scientist and the National Coordinator of the Lokniti network, pointed out that in Karnataka, the reservation under Backward Classes includes the dominant classes like Lingayat and Vokkaliga as well.

“Now, the political parties in the state don’t have the political will to remove them from the OBC list because they are dominant castes. In fact, if you look at the 2023 election, it was a combination of Siddaramaiah bringing the non-dominant OBC votes and DK Shivakumar bringing the section of the Vokkaliga votes that helped the Congress win the polls,” he said.

He added that more than numbers, it was political control that gave these dominant groups political clout in the state. “Since 1953, the majority of the MLAs were from these communities. It is unlikely that Congress would risk alienating these groups by relying completely on the AHINDA vote bank,” he added.

Meanwhile, reacting to the caste survey report, former Karnataka chief minister and senior BJP leader Basavaraj Bommai on Wednesday said that his party was not against the caste survey.

To the question of whether the dominant group, especially in the Vokkaliga community which rallied behind the Congress in Assembly falls back to JD(S), he said the answer is in the data. “The question is whether the Vokkaliga voter is anti-Congress or anti-BJP. The data shows whenever an alliance is formed with the BJP by JD(S), less than 50% voter share has been transferred,” he added.

Meanwhile, reacting to the caste census, former Karnataka Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai on Wednesday said that his party was not against the caste census. “I am not aware of the contents in that report. It is alleged that the report has been leaked. Let us see once the report comes. Siddaramaiah should have received the report while he was the CM for the first time. However, it was not implemented due to the 2018 Assembly polls. Now, we will wait and see what the government does,” Bommai said.