The official data is scheduled to be released on Monday.

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Respondents predicted inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) in the range of 4.5-5.1% in October, with only one economist expecting inflation to cross 5%. If the median prediction comes true, this would be the first time in four months that inflation falls below 5%.

“We see a broad-based easing of CPI inflation, led by base effects, even as it picked up month-on-month from September,” said Kanika Pasricha, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank. “We estimate food CPI at 6.2% y-o-y (September: 6.3%), with price pressure on onions, cereals, pulses and sugar partly offset by falling tomato prices.”

A sub-5% inflation print will be welcome news for the Reserve Bank of India, which recently stated that it will remain “extra vigilant” on inflation and reinforced its commitment to keep inflation below 4%.

However, economists have warned of an increase in vegetable prices.

“We estimate that CPI inflation slowed further in October… but this reprieve is likely to be fleeting as onion prices are climbing. Pressures from non-perishable food prices also persist,” said Rahul Bajoria, economist at Barclays.

Inflation has been driven primarily by high vegetable prices over the past few months, reaching a 15-month high in July. Rising prices led the government to impose a ban on rice exports and raise duties on onion exports.

According to Standard Chartered economists, inflation is forecast to remain below 5% till November, before rebounding to the 5% to 5.5% range for the rest of FY24.

Economists at Barclays expect core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel, to be stable in October, as overall persistence in the core basket has reduced, but it remains in essential services such as health and education.