Chennai/New Delhi: Tamil Nadu chief minister M K Stalin on Tuesday blamed the India Meteorological Department (IMD), country’s weather office, for failing to forecast heavy rains in four southern districts of the state on December 17 and 18, saying that the ‘red’ alert for rains was issued after the downpour had started.

Speaking to reporters in Delhi, Stalin said the regional meteorological centre (RMC) in Chennai had informed on December 17 about expected extreme rainfall. “It rained several times higher than what was forecast by the meteorological centre. It was unprecedented,” said Stalin.

Four southern districts in Tamil Nadu –Thoothukudi, Tiruneveli, Tenkasi and Kanyakuamri – were drenched in heavy rains on December 17 and 18; it was the heaviest rainfall recorded in the region since 1871, the CM said.

The IMD had issued a red warning on Saturday evening for rainfall above 21cm, but Kayalpattinam in Thoothukudi district received 95 cm rainfall in a single day. It was more than the annual rainfall that the entire district receives, which is an average of 70 cm, the IMD said.

“Though we received the warning from the meteorology department a bit late and though it rained more than what was forecast, Tamil Nadu had taken precautions,” Stalin said, listing the relief and rescue operations which are in full swing.

The dairy development minister in Stalin’s cabinet Mano Thangaraj said correct prediction from the IMD on the severity of the situation could have reduced the impact and loss.

“It’s important to acknowledge that the unforeseen severity and impact of these events could have been mitigated with more precise and timely forecasts from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD),” Thangaraj posted on X. “A significant issue was the time discrepancy in the weather alerts. The gap between the issuance of the Red Alert and the actual flooding was much shorter than what could have been ideal as some western models exhibit in those countries.”

S Balachandran, head of RMC in Chennai, said a cyclonic circulation over Comorin area in south-east Sri Lanka brought heavy rains in southern parts of the state. “There was more moisture inside the system than anticipated, which brought widespread rain. This (system) has given more rain than a cyclone. We have to expect such types of extreme events because of climate change,” he said.

M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences and climate scientist said this “magnitude” of rain is not expected from such a weather system. “This was a relatively shallow system. It was a combination of a strong easterly wave and a cyclonic circulation. During northeast monsoon we do see heavy rainfall events but this was not really expected. So, it’s quite possible that IMD or other agencies did not predict this magnitude of rains. Forecasts are made based on dynamic settings of the atmosphere. Moisture played an important role. Sometimes mesoscale systems cannot be seen in typical weather charts. This was seen in the 2005 Mumbai floods,” he said.

Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and IPCC author, said some meteorological parameters and saw the wind convergence over some regions was quite anomalous. “There were strong easterly winds which brought in a lot of moisture. But these rains are matching with Mumbai 2005 floods which is unexpected. We need in depth analysis of satellite and in situation data,” he added.

Also Read: Tamil Nadu district receives 96-cm rainfall in 1 day; experts link it to climate crisis

Stalin who is in Delhi for the INDIA bloc’s meeting and met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday, updating him of the ongoing flood situation as well as on the impact of cyclone Michaung, which submerged Chennai on December 4. He also wrote to defence minister, Rajnath Singh, urging him to deploy more Indian Air Force helicopters for relief work. Stalin said four Indian Air Force helicopters, two helicopters each from the Navy and Coast Guard have been deployed to rescue stranded people and airdropping food items to those marooned.

“Given the enormity of the disaster and the large number of habitations to be covered, we need more helicopters for rescue and relief distribution. Hence, I request your urgent intervention to deploy the maximum number of helicopters immediately,” he wrote to Singh.

IMPACT

After two days of incessant rains, it was a sunny day on Tuesday, making rescue operations carried out by the National Disaster Relief Force and State Disaster Relief Force, apart from Army and Indian Air Force, easier. Around four million people have been badly affected by the rains in these districts, state government officials said.

RELIEF WORK

Hundreds of passengers who were stranded inside a marooned train (the Tiruchendur-Chennai Express) were rescued in batches by the Indian Air Force and the southern railways on Tuesday. They were stranded at the flooded Srivaikuntam railway station in Thoothukudi since December 17 night. While 300 out of the 800 passengers were rescued on Monday, rescue personnel could not access the remaining people due to flooding and water currents.

Locals with the help of the district police managed to provide food for the passengers but a helicopter carrying two- tonnes of relief materials, which left the Sulur air base on Monday could not make the drop due to adverse weather conditions and poor light. Finally, on Tuesday morning, railway personnel waded through chest-deep water to hand out food packets and water bottles to the passengers. Subsequently, three helicopters airdropped relief items.

Subsequently, railway police staff, the NDRF, and state police began the evacuation process. Senior citizens were carried to safety on stretchers. As the water began receding, some passengers waded through knee-deep water for about 3 km from the station. By Tuesday evening, all of them were rescued and brought to relief centres. A special train will take them to Chennai, a B Guganesan, spokesperson of the railways said.

Besides the train passengers, the Indian Air Force said that they rescued four stranded people including a pregnant woman and an infant while the Indian Coast Guard rescued 80 people in Thoothukudi. The body of an old man was seen floating on a road in Tirunelveli. The state government is yet to release the rain-related death toll.