NEW DELHI: California is on the brink of experiencing a significant earthquake, potentially the largest seismic event in two decades, according to a recent study. Researchers have pinpointed the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault in central California, which has a history of quakes occurring approximately every 22 years. With the last major tremor, a 6-magnitude quake, striking in 2004, the state is deemed due for another significant seismic event, a Daily Mail report said.
The study, led by Luca Malagnini of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Italy, underscores the regularity of earthquakes along this notorious fault line, which extends from Eureka to just past Palm Springs.The historical pattern observed includes significant quakes in 2004, 1983, 1966, and 1934, all ranging from 6.0 to 6.7 in magnitude. The impending quake, predicted to possibly hit this year, has heightened concerns about the region’s seismic activity and preparedness.
The San Andreas Fault is infamous for its potential to produce the ‘Big One,’ a major quake anticipated to cause extensive damage. Experts estimate that a quake of magnitude 7.0 or higher could result in at least 1,800 fatalities, 50,000 injuries, and over $200 billion in damages, profoundly affecting the state’s infrastructure and population.
The 2004 Parkfield earthquake demonstrated the fault’s capacity for widespread impact, with the tremor felt across a 350-mile radius and followed by 150 aftershocks. Despite the relative quiet in seismic noise currently being observed, scientists remain vigilant, employing new methodologies to detect early signs of an impending quake.
Researchers have focused on “seismic wave attenuation,” analyzing how sound waves travel through the ground and identifying patterns that precede earthquakes. This approach has revealed that certain types of waves lose energy differently in the weeks leading up to a quake, providing potential indicators of seismic activity.
While the science of earthquake prediction is still in development, these findings offer hope for future advancements in forecasting and mitigating the effects of these natural disasters. The study, published in the journal Frontiers in Earth Science, marks a significant step towards understanding and eventually predicting earthquakes, potentially saving lives and reducing damage from these inevitable events.
San Andreas Fault
The San Andreas Fault is a continental transform fault that extends roughly 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) through California. It forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate, and its movement is right-lateral strike-slip (horizontal). This fault is responsible for many of California’s earthquakes and has a significant impact on the state’s geology in several ways:
Earthquake generation
Seismic activity: The San Andreas Fault is notorious for producing large and devastating earthquakes as the Pacific Plate moves northwestward past the North American Plate. The energy release from these movements can cause significant damage to buildings, infrastructure, and natural landscapes across California.
Recurring quakes: Sections of the fault have a history of rupturing at somewhat regular intervals, leading to significant earthquakes. Historical examples include the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake.
Mountain and valley formation: The movement along the San Andreas Fault has contributed to the formation of various geographical features in California, including mountains, valleys, and basins. For example, the Transverse Ranges and parts of the Coast Ranges were formed as a result of the fault’s activity.
Offset streams and rivers
The fault’s movement has offset rivers, streams, and ancient shorelines, creating visible signs of its activity over millennia. These offsets can be used by scientists to study the history and rate of fault movement.