This is against the government’s third advance estimate of 34.3 million bales for the 2022-23 season and the 2021-22 season industry production estimate of 29.9 million bales.

The upward revision in estimates has been done due to a production increase from the previous estimates for Punjab (25,000 bales), Gujarat (241,000 bales), Maharashtra (71,000 bales), Telangana (50,000 bales), Andhra Pradesh (140,000 bales), Karnataka (150,000 bales), Tamil Nadu (45,000 bales) and Rajasthan (50,000 bales).

CAI said the estimate is based on the outcome of its crop committee meeting on 7 October and the changes made in the state-wise cotton pressing (cotton production) estimates compared to those estimated previously based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.

Traders and industry participants pointed to a huge difference between the estimates of CAI and the government for the 2022-23 cotton season as farmers reportedly held back their produce expecting better prices like last year.

Prices of cotton in the 2021-22 season exceed ₹100,000 a candy (1 candy=365 kg). In September, cotton was being traded in the range of ₹59,500-63,750 per candy in key markets of Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, and ₹60,900 a candy on the Multi Commodity Exchange.

However, growers brought more cotton between 1 March and 30 September as they feared prices may fall. Arrivals during this period were a record 8.57 million bales against 3.61 million bales during the corresponding period last year, according to spot trade sources.

According to the ministry of agriculture, farmers planted cotton across 12.4 million hectares in the 2023-24 (July-June) crop year compared with 12.8 million hectares a year ago.

The crop estimate for the current season is due anytime now as the ministry is compiling the data.

Normally, the government releases the first advance crop estimate at the end of September or the pre-rabi conference, which was concluded two weeks ago.

While CAI calculates the arrivals in the markets, the Centre goes by reports from field assessments made by state governments.

Queries sent to the agriculture ministry remained unanswered at press time.

Meanwhile, India’s cotton exports for the 2022-23 crop year are estimated to have dropped to a record low of 1.55 million bales, the lowest since 2004-2005, in the season ended September, said CAI.

The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption Cotton initially projected the exports of the commodity to be 3 million bales but with the global economy, especially China, being affected, the shipments got hit.

Similarly, imports were also lower at 1.25 million bales, which is 250,000 bales lower than initially estimated for the 2022-23 crop year and 150,000 bales less than the import estimate of 1.4 million bales for the previous crop year 2021-22.

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Updated: 10 Oct 2023, 11:03 PM IST