With the dust settling on what has been hailed as a historic outcome at the COP28 climate conference, experts say much will now depend on how the shift away from fossil fuels will in reality take place, the role of developed countries in this effort and the sticky problem of inadequate climate finance on which there was little headway in Dubai.

The deal, approved by nearly 200 countries in the UAE on Wednesday, contains the first call for a transition from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner, while accelerating action in this decade to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

Experts said there remain critical questions — such as, can developed countries eat into the remaining room the world has to burn fossil fuels.

They also said that though the language may appear to give a sense of time for countries to do what they need to in order to honour this consensus, changes in policies and entire new outlook for economies need to be immediate.

For countries like India, this would mean a calibrated approach on how they can transition while meeting development aspirations.

“I think for the first time there was a sense of urgency and sense of the crisis. In spite of the deep divisions between the North and the South, the inconvenient truth — that we have to collaborate and that we have to come together — was recognised and accepted at COP28,” said Sunita Narain, director general, Centre for Science and Environment.

“The narrative has changed on the issue of low and concessional finance to be made available for countries of the South, on the actions that are needed, and particularly on the question of putting fossil fuels on the table. It is an inconvenient truth but we need to face up to the fact that we cannot have a simplistic debate on phasing out fossil fuels without having an action plan connected to it,” she added.

The agreement for the first time “notes that scaling up new and additional grant-based, highly concessional finance, and non-debt instruments remain critical to supporting developing countries, particularly as they transition in a just and equitable manner, and recognizes that there is a positive connection between having sufficient fiscal space, and climate action and advancing on a pathway towards low emissions and climate-resilient development.”

Among various pathways to keep warming under 1.5°C compared with the pre-industrial average, the consensus document calls countries to accelerate and substantially reduce non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030. It also calls on countries to submit economy-wide, covering all GHG gases, nationally determined contributions (NDC) during the next NDC cycle.

India will need to be particularly mindful of the language on methane and non-CO2 emissions, and phasing down of unabated coal. While India’s commitment to net zero emissions may be 50 years away, those pathways will need to be laid out now.

As a whole, for developing countries, the key issue will be concessional finance to put in place these transitional policies — or the period when these countries switch from more polluting but cheaper fuels, to cleaner energies.

“This text has moved the agenda forward on mitigation while also recognising that transition will have to be equitable. For India, there are two issues, they need to be mindful of the text on methane and other non-CO2 gases and on coal. This is simply because our methane emissions are from livestock and agriculture. The UN process and conventions are soft law but they are to be implemented, action plans have to be made, the implementation is then reviewed so we obviously need to proceed in that direction,” said Manjeev Singh Puri, former diplomat and negotiator.

Experts pointed out another important issue with implementation is that the text – that it doesn’t layout which countries can use the remaining fossil fuels budget for Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal trajectory, who can use transition fuels and why developed nations cannot eat into the share of developing countries.

“The text is not good enough in the fact that we have not specified how will equity get operationalised in the use of the remaining budget of fossil fuels in the world. So not only do fossil fuels have to phased out, the word of course right now is to make a transition away from fossil fuels. In our view, they need to be phased out based on the available signs. The available signs tell us that there is a quota of fossil fuel available within the 1.5 budget,” added Narain.

NDCs are declarations each country makes to the UN framework on combating climate change (UNFCCC), and these are usually updated every five years.

“Going forward, India could consider responding to the GST (global stocktake agreement at Dubai) in its next NDC, due in 2025, by raising its current target of half of non-fossil electricity capacity in 2030 to a higher target of about two-thirds of non-fossil electricity capacity in 2030. This would also be aligned with the commitment, adopted under India’s G20 presidency to triple renewable energy capacity,” said Ulka Kelkar, executive director, climate, WRI India.