NEW DELHI: A rapid spike in fighting between Myanmar’s military and anti-junta forces over the past week could have ramifications for security in India’s strategic northeast region, especially Manipur and Mizoram states. Here is a closer look at “Operation 1027” launched by resistance groups, developments in different parts of Myanmar and the implications for India.

What has happened so far?

The Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Arakan Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), launched Operation 1027 (named after the date the offensive began) in northeastern Shan State bordering China.

The alliance, with the support of other small groups, has reportedly overrun more than 135 military positions, seized large caches of weapons and ammunition, and taken control of trade routes with China, including Kunlong town near Chinshwehaw, the site for a proposed rail link with China.

This was followed by similar offensives by the Chin National Front (CNF) in Chin State, the Kachin Region People’s Defense Force (Mogaung) in Kachin State, various People’s Defence Force (PDF) groups in Sagaing Region, the Arakan Army in Rakhine State, and the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF), Karenni Army and Karenni National People’s Liberation Front (KNPLF) in Karenni State. Chin and Kachin States and Sagaing Region border India, and CNF fighters were involved in capturing Rihkhawdar, home to one of two official border crossing points with India, over the weekend.

There have been reports of casualties on both sides, with rebel groups claiming to have killed nearly 90 military personnel. The junta has declared martial law in many towns in Shan, Chin and Karenni States and Sagaing Region. The fighting has forced thousands of Myanmarese nationals, including security personnel, to flee to Mizoram.

Which are the main resistance groups?

The Three Brotherhood Alliance, which first emerged in 2016, has taken the lead in the ongoing offensives. In a statement announcing Operation 1027, the alliance said the campaign was driven by a desire to “safeguard the lives of civilians, assert our right of self-defence, maintain control of our territory, and respond resolutely to ongoing artillery attacks and airstrikes” by Myanmar’s military. It said it is also “dedicated to eradicating the oppressive military dictatorship, a shared aspiration of the entire Myanmar populace”.

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) is perceived as the strongest group in the Three Brotherhood Alliance and has spearheaded Operation 1027. The group, which was formed in 1989 and is believed to have some 6,000 fighters, has said it has taken control of the key border crossing with China at Chinshwehaw.

The Arakan Army, created in 2009 and based in Rakhine State, is the military wing of the United League of Arakan (ULA). The group is led by Twan Mrat Naing and is believed to have more than 35,000 fighters spread across Kachin, Rakhine and Shan States.

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) is the armed wing of the Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF) and disarmed in 2005 after signing a ceasefire pact with the government. It was reconstituted in 2011 and is currently believed to have some 8,000 troops.

How has Myanmar’s State Administration Council responded?

The State Administration Council (SAC) has responded to rebel offensives by trying to mobilise ground forces for counter-attacks and carrying out air strikes at several places. Myint Swe, appointed as Myanmar’s President after the 2021 coup, was quoted by the state-run media last week as saying that the country “will be split into various parts” if the government doesn’t effectively manage “incidents happening in the border region”.

Military leaders have claimed they have regained control of the situation and inflicted “a large number of casualties” on the MNDAA.

What does it mean for India?

Apart from a recent influx of thousands of refugees from Myanmar into Mizoram, concerns are growing about a spillover of tensions into border areas in India’s northeast. Myanmar’s Chin ethnic group has strong links with the Kukis in Manipur, and several Meitei militant groups from Manipur have a presence in Myanmar’s Sagaing Region and are believed to be patronised by the junta. Experts believe this could have implications for the situation in Manipur.

When India’s deputy national security adviser Vikram Misri visited Naypyitaw to attend an event on October 15 that marked the eighth anniversary of the signing of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement with Myanmar’s rebel groups, he had said the pact needs to be strengthened to resolve ethnic conflicts. “However, we must acknowledge that the journey towards peace has been fraught with challenges. There have been setbacks along the way, and the path forward remains challenging in view of the evolving political landscape in Myanmar,” he said.