The IMD’s weather update on Monday had outlined that a low-pressure area is likely to develop over the southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea in the next 48 hours.

If a tropical storm is formed in the Indian seas, it will be called “Tej”, according to a formula followed for naming cyclone in the Indian Ocean region.

According to a report by PTI citing an official at the IMD, a cyclonic circulation over the southeast Arabian Sea and the adjoining Lakshadweep region has been seen. Due to which a low-pressure area is likely to be formed over the same region.

At present, the probability of the system intensifying into a cyclonic storm is not notably high.

“As of now, the probability of this system intensifying into a cyclonic storm is not very high. The models have yet to confirm it. There is no unanimity in the model forecasts so far. We will have to wait for a few more days for a clear picture to emerge,” the official was quoted as saying by PTI.

Due to warmer ocean temperatures October to December is among the favourable periods for the development of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

In 2022, no tropical storm was formed over the Arabian Sea during the post-monsoon season, while the Bay of Bengal witnessed two tropical storms —  Sitrang and Mandous.

Cyclones in the Arabian Sea have a history of uncertain tracks and timelines, according to Skymet Weather.

Once the cyclones are over the central parts of the Arabian Sea, their preferred track is towards Somalia, the Gulf of Aden, Yemen, and Oman. However, on a few occasions, these cyclones take a detour and head towards the Gujarat and Pakistan coastline, Skymet said.

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Updated: 18 Oct 2023, 06:18 PM IST