On average, real GDP growth after simultaneous polls was comparatively higher than otherwise, the panel led by former President Ram Nath Kovind said. The committee submitted its report to President Droupadi Murmu on Thursday, recommending Constitutional amendments to facilitate concurrent polls.

Home minister Amit Shah, former leader of the Opposition in Rajya Sabha Ghulam Nabi Azad, former finance commission chairman N.K. Singh and senior advocate Harish Salve were among members of the panel, which unanimously recommended simultaneous polls. “It is a historic day for the country’s democratic system,” home minister and committee member Shah wrote on X, announcing the submission of the report.

Quoting a research paper presented by Singh and Prachi Mishra, an IMF economist, the report said on average, real GDP growth is higher following simultaneous elections, while a decrease is found post non-simultaneous episodes.

“The magnitudes suggest approximately 1.5 percentage points higher post-pre difference in growth as compared to non-simultaneous elections,” the panel said. The paper cited examples to show that when there were periods of decline in growth rates after elections, it was steeper when elections were not simultaneous. The paper said 1.5% of GDP is equal to ₹4.5 trillion in FY24, half the public spending on health, and one third that on education.

Simultaneous polls will bring a fundamental transformation in the electoral process and overall governance, the panel said. In a social media post, the panel’s chairman Kovid said the report was made after extensive consultation with all stakeholders.

Synchronized polls may optimize resources, encourage large-scale voter participation, mitigate disruptions to the model code of conduct and its impact on economic growth, and enable businesses to maintain their production cycle by ensuring availability of workers, the report said.

The panel said retail inflation was lower for simultaneous polls than otherwise. Inflation rates generally drop around both types of election cycles, but more so around simultaneous episodes. The report also pointed out that the central government’s fiscal deficit rises faster after simultaneous polls compared to non-simultaneous ones.

Opposition members are not convinced. Simultaneous polls go against the basic principles of democracy and the federal structure, said N.K. Premachandran, member of Parliament from Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP). “Although states are part of the Union, they have their own legislative assemblies and own powers. There are many technical and practical challenges to holding simultaneous elections,” he said.

Political analysts said ‘one nation one election’ is a great idea, but political, legal and Constitutional issues need to be tackled first. If these issues are addressed and a fresh beginning is made, maintaining an unbroken electoral cycle was another issue given that the Lok Sabha and state assemblies can be dissolved mid-way under the Constitution, explained A.K. Verma, director of the Centre for Study of Society and Politics, an independent think tank. “One nation, one election is neither against democracy nor against federalism, as we very well see in some of the countries like the US, which is a great example of democracy and federalism,” said Verma.

Bloomberg reported former chief election commissioner S.Y. Quraishi as saying that the policy change mostly benefits the party at the national level. “There is a study which shows that if elections are held simultaneously, 77% of people vote for the same party,” said Quraishi, who led the Election Commission from 2010 to 2012.

Out of 47 political parties which submitted their views, 32 supported simultaneous polls, a law ministry statement said. Apart from the BJP, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), Shiv Sena, Janata Dal (United) and Shiromani Akali Dal were among its prominent supporters, the Congress, Aam Aadmi Party, Trinamool Congress and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam opposed it.

The report also pointed said the propensity for revenue spending or announcing freebies during elections has consequences, as it brings a burden on future generations. Frequent election cycles only accentuate adverse intergenerational choices as compared to governments which do so once in five years, the panel said.

The report proposed holding assembly polls after a newly elected Lok Sabha meets for the first time, and the tenure of all state assemblies coming to an end along with that of the Lok Sabha.

Industry groups highlighted the adverse impact of intermittent elections on economic growth, quality of public expenditure, educational and other outcomes, and social harmony, the ministry statement said.

It said the shift would require “bare minimum amendments to the Constitution.” The plan will significantly enhance transparency, inclusivity, ease and confidence of the voters, the statement said.

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Published: 14 Mar 2024, 11:05 PM IST