When Dushyant Chautala of the Jannayak Janata Party(JJP) broke his alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Tuesday, he became the third significant Jat leader to walk away from the national political hegemon in a week. Chautala’s exit comes days after Rajasthan’s lawmaker Rahul Kaswan and Haryana’s Brijendra Singh joined the Congress Party. All three are from connected and influential Jat families . And all are young. Chautala is 35, Kaswan, 47 and Singh , 51.

Read here: Churu MP Rahul Kaswan, denied BJP ticket for Lok Sabha polls, joins Congress

There are other Jat leaders who haven’t quit but aren’t feeling particularly happy. For instance, two term MP and former Mumbai police commissioner Satya Pal Singh seems to have become collateral damage of the party’s alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which has been alloted his Baghpat seat. While HT spoke to those close to him, Singh didn’t offer any comment.

And while former union minister Sanjeev Balyan has hung on to his Muzaffarnagar seat, his chances of coming back in the council of ministers have shrunk, say people in the party, because of RLD’s expected induction in the new Modi cabinet. Balyan aide cited his door to door campaign programme as the reason for not commenting on the story.

Similarly, the Delhi candidate list has cut out yet another Jat face, two- term West Delhi MP Parvesh Verma. Verma like Kaswan and Singh is a second generation leader, the son of former Delhi chief minister Sahib Singh Verma.

For the record, Verma told HT, “There is no question of being unhappy. I have full faith in my party leadership..I will do whatever is in good faith of my party with or without any post.400+ seats for BJP is my mission..’’

The Jat community has significant numbers in western Uttar Pradesh (making up roughly 15%), Rajasthan (15%) and Haryana(25%). According to the ruling party’s internal assessments, Jats influence more than 70 seats. And there was no Jat cabinet minister in the Modi 2.0 cabinet. Virender Singh, Brijendra Singh’s father was a union minister in the 2014 cabinet while in the current council, Balyan and Kailash Choudhary hold the post of union ministers.

But it would be incorrect to believe this will translate into a loss of votes, said BJP’s new entrant Ashok Tanwar. “The reason why Modiji gets such a mandate is because every segment of society votes for him, and this includes Jats.’’ The Haryana BJP’s assessment is that Chautala’s exit will help the party dissociate from anti-incumbency. Moreover, being a Jat leader now in the opposition, he will be able to eat into the Congress’ Jat vote bank.

“I will speak only at the rally tomorrow,’’ said Chautala when contacted by HT.

But is it as straightforward as the BJP’s assessment? Speaking to HT, Brijendra Singh said that if indeed, Chautala was a drag on the BJP, the party certainly woke up too late.

​`My exit may have played a small part in stirring the BJP into changing their Haryana leadership,’’ he said.

“The kisan (farmer) community is feeling neglected and their voices are not being heard,’’ said Kaswan. “When they deny a ticket to someone who’s family has been serving them since 91, shouldn’t they given an explanation? The community is feeling the anger and frustration,’’ said Kaswan, who is now the Congress’ Churu candidate.

Read here: Hisar BJP MP Brijendra Singh joins Congress, reveals reason for switch

There is a theory that the party will no longer hand out tickets to family boroughs, without a proper review or where the party wins over a new ally like the RLD. But as Brijendra Singh said, “It’s all very well to say that you won’t give tickets to families but that’s not how it works in India. We are a reflection of our society’’

The good news for the BJP is that many will stay with the BJP despite being sidelined. Satya Pal Singh continues with the last of his MP duties while Parvesh Verma waits for some organisational role ahead of Delhi elections.