Delhi has turned into a fortress as farmers belonging to more than 200 unions staged protest at the borders of national capital after their meeting with two Union ministers remained inconclusive. The national capital and its borders are fortified for the protest march just months before the Lok Sabha elections 2024.

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Just three years ago, a section of farmers from Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh had staged a year-long protest against the three farm laws passed by the Narendra Modi government. The stir also grabbed headlines for the wrong reasons, not to forget the January 26 tractor rally violence in 2021.

On November 19, 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address to the nation announced that the Centre had decided to repeal the three farm laws passed by the Parliament the previous year.

As PM Modi seeks a record third-straight term in office, hoping to equal Jawahar Lal Nehru’s feat, the renewed farm protest is a big test for the Bharatiya Janata Party just months ahead of the big 2024 battle. The opposition INDIA bloc, hopeful of a 2004 repeat when the Vajpayee-Advani juggernaut was halted, also has its share of woes.

Why are farmers’ protests a test for BJP?

The Bharatiya Janata Party is buoyed after a stupendous success in the assembly elections held last December. Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a rally in Madhya Pradesh’s Jhabua reiterated his ‘24 me 400 paar’ call for the upcoming elections.

But the farmers’ protest must have left the BJP worried. The farmers staging protests hail from politically crucial states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, all in the Hindi heartland.

Punjab sends 13 members to the Lok Sabha. The state will witness a multi-cornered contest in the general elections due to INDIA bloc member Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal announcing his decision to contest the elections alone. The BJP, which according to Election Commission data had a vote share of 9.73 per cent in the state in 2019 and just two seats, would have hoped to take advantage of the INDIA split. There were talks of Shiromani Akali Dal being in talks with the BJP for a possible return to the NDA fold, but SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal denied.

However, the BJP may find it tough to repeat its 2019 elections in Haryana when it won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The state had witnessed an active participation of the farmers during the protests in 2020 and now as well. The BJP had a vote share of 58.20 per cent in the last general elections against the Congress’ share of 28.51 per cent. Also, the BJP is expected to fight the election in alliance with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party and hope to minimise a possible impact of the protests.

The farmers’ protests have also witnessed participation from Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha. The BJP had won 72 seats in 2014 and 62 in 2019 general elections. In the previous election, the party then helmed by Amit Shah had successfully defeated the Mahagathbandhan alliance of Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and bagged 49.97 per cent of the votes. Among the grand alliance, the RLD with 1.67 per cent of votes, is expected to formally finalise its alliance with the BJP.

What’s at stake for INDIA bloc in the farmers protest?

If you thought that the renewed farmers’ protest is a headache for BJP alone, think again. The opposition INDIA bloc has the last chance to make any impact before the 97 crore voters cast their votes in the Lok Sabha elections in months from now.

Staring at an existential crisis following exits by Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) and the RLD, the INDIA alliance is also dealing with its partners like Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal announcing their plans to contest elections alone.

Congress MP Rahul Gandhi took to social media platform X to slam PM Modi over the farmers’ protest.

“Modi, who ‘cultivates lies’ day and night, has only cheated the farmers in the last 10 years. By promising double the income, Modi also made the farmers yearn for MSP. Due to inflation, farmers’ debts increased by 60% due to not getting fair prices for their crops – as a result, about 30 farmers lost their lives every day,” Gandhi said.

“The one whose USP is deception, can only do politics with the farmers in the name of MSP, not justice. Those who put obstacles in the path of farmers are not worthy of trust, uproot them from Delhi, Congress will provide justice and profit to the farmers,” Gandhi added.

The Congress is hoping to make its presence felt in the Hindi heartland, where it has been decimated by the BJP over the years. The grand old party is in power only in Himachal Pradesh, especially after its drubbing in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The Congress has some reasons to smile in the southern citadel, where it rules Karnataka and Telangana and is an alliance partner of DMK in Tamil Nadu.

But the Congress cuts a sorry figure in the three states that headlined farmers’ protest. It was obliterated by the AAP in Punjab in 2022 assembly polls, and the Kejriwal-led party’s decision to go solo in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections has almost diminished its hopes of a better performance in the state where it won eight out of 13 seats in 2019. In Haryana, Congress had almost seized power with more than 30 seats until JJP decided to join hands with the BJP.

But Uttar Pradesh is the state where the Congress would be eyeing to reverse its depleting fortunes. The party had won just one seat in the previous general elections and just two in the assembly election of 2022. The assembly elections were held just months after the farmers protest had ended and the opposition had hoped to reap dividends electorally.