As of Thursday, the gap has widened from a 7% deficit at the beginning of August. Rainfall in August is deficient by 40%.

For the week ended Wednesday, India recorded a precipitation of 43.2 mm, 22% lower than the long period average. Higher water levels are critical for the agriculture sector, with farmers largely depending on reservoirs for irrigation.

Data from the Central Water Commission (CWC) showed that water level in 146 reservoirs is currently at 113.584 billion cubic metres (bcm), which is 64% of their overall capacity. Although there’s been a slight uptick since last week, it pales in comparison to the same period last year, where storage was at 144.569 bcm. The ten-year average for this period is 120.916 bcm.

The CWC reported, “The storage in the 146 reservoirs is presently at 79% of the same period’s storage last year and 94% of the ten-year average.”

Region-wise, reservoirs in states such as Himachal Pradesh, Nagaland, and Uttarakhand fare better than the previous year. In contrast, several other states, including Punjab, Rajasthan, Bihar, and Kerala, among others, have reported reduced water levels.

A detailed regional analysis highlights that 21 major dams in eastern India show water levels 37% below the previous year. Meanwhile, 40 reservoirs in the southern part of the country are 11% below the last year’s level. The monsoon deficit in the week ending Wednesday for eastern and southern India stood at 18% and 48%, respectively, affecting the predominantly rain-fed agriculture in these regions.

Experts warn that the reduced rainfall could hurt crop yields due to several factors, such as poor growth, pests, and inadequate flower settings. This could result in decreased production of essential crops like cotton, maize, and soybean, particularly in eastern and southern states.

Notably, several states, including West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar, have seen rainfall deficits ranging from 20% to 63%, accompanied by low reservoir levels. This may exacerbate the negative effect on yields, translating to reduced production.

However, there’s a glimmer of hope. Pushan Sharma, Director of Research at CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics, opines that the anticipated heavy rainfall until 29th August for certain states could mitigate some of the negative impacts.

The national monsoon tally, as per the weather department, remains ‘below normal’, registering a 7% deficiency from June 1 to August 24. Current rainfall deficits for regions like the east and northeast, south peninsula, and central India are 19%, 15%, and 4%, respectively. Contrarily, northwest India has recorded an 8% surplus in rainfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a below-average rainfall in August, estimating it at 94% of the long period average.

Updated: 25 Aug 2023, 02:31 PM IST